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农产品市场的季节性分析和它的种植文明一样古老,是最可预测的金融周期之一。季节性分析的核心是不会改变的:农作物有一个生长季节,从种植作为开始,以收获作为结束。除了微小的变化之外,农作物每年都在同一时间种植,大约在几个月后收获。
因为生长季节每年都在同一时期发生,所以市场价格也会根据循环的种植/收获周期显现出同样的周期循环。例如,一项对玉米历史价格的研究表明,玉米往往会在仲夏时节看到最高价格,然后通常价格会在秋季下跌。
这种季节性的价格趋势通常与经济作物的供应/需求一致——春季供应减少,在秋季农作物收获后供应增加。了解了这一季节性趋势,你就可以制定一个投资策略来从中获利。
虽然种植/收获周期是可以预测的,但季节性价格模型会随着时间而改变。20年前的季节性趋势和5年前的季节性趋势可能并不会一样。当你建立一个基于季节性分析的策略时,你会想要研究不同时间段的历史季节模型。例如,近年来的干旱情况可能已经改变了几十年来的季节性模型,但随着干旱的结束,长期的季节性表现将会回归。
例如,你可以看到最近5年的玉米产量:
原因很简单:不是每一年都是简单复制其他年份,你可以在这里看到所有年份的表现:
考虑到这一点,季节性分析的年份都需要在一个严格的规定范围才会是最好的。
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