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The trading and investing signals are provided for education purposes and if you use them with real money, you do so at your own risk.
就如我们之前在《外汇基本面分析》课文中所提到的,利率对币值影响力大。为此,我们在这节来探讨关于利率和货币政策。 在下图中,您可看到中国央行的利率:
(图表来源:global-rates.com)
您不难发现中国利率呈下跌状态,这是因为在2008年的全球经济萧条后,所有工业国在过去的十年里都采用降息政策,促进经济发展。
在下文中,您能观察到中国的GDP发展趋势:
您可以看到经济发展趋势呈下行,凸显了在这个周期实行降息政策的重要性,刺激经济发展。这也意味着人民币的币值下跌,也就是贬值了。在没有节外生枝的情况下,此趋势持续,意味着人民币兑其他货币贬值。那么,如果中国经济再次起飞,情况又会是如何呢?
当中国经济向上发展,中国央行很可能会加息,导致人民币升值,意味着美元兑人民币货币对下跌。这仅是一套逻辑理论。在现实生活中,还参杂了其他因素。中国不希望人民币升值,因为这让中国出口货显得更贵,造成出口下跌。
中国外汇储备高达3.3万亿美元,这个数字以绝对优势排名全球第一。排名第二的日本只有1.2万亿。亚洲的这两个国家拥有如此高的外汇储备可以用它们以强化出口为经济战略来解释。然而,中国商品出口率达到40%的同时还实现了35%的超高储蓄率。
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