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空头净额(Short interest)是交易者卖空但尚未抛售的股票数量。 股票的空头净额比率是指股票的卖空量占股票流通量或自由交易股票的百分比。 在美国市场,个股的空头净额每月通过各种出版物更新。
您可能认为空头净额越高,其价格上涨的可能性就越大。 由于要空单平仓,投资者必须回购空头股票。 因此,对该股来说,该空头头寸可能被视为一种被压抑的购买需求。
然而,学术研究发现,高的空头净额通常可以预测证券的表现不佳。空头净额越高,股票或市场在接下来的几个月内就越有可能提供相对较差的回报。
请意识到做空股票比做多股票更有风险。以下是空头所面临的问题:
股票大部分时间都在上涨。
股票可能难以借到。
持有空头头寸的贷款费用可能很高,并且该费用可能会难以预测地上涨。
经纪商可以随时“调用”卖空股票,迫使其在市场上出售。
空头受约束于罕见但潜在的不利“扎空(short squeeze)“(见下文)。
在面临成本和风险上升时,那些启动数百万美元空头头寸的投资者,不会随便行动,而是可能进行了广泛的研究。 因此,具有大量空头净额的股票往往反映了仔细审查过公司财务状况的资深投资者的意见。 一只股票的大量空头净额可以被看作是掌握内情的空头卖家们进行的集体投票,认同股票价值被高估并可能下跌。
另一方面,正如我们在下一节课中将会看到的那样,如果空头卖家突然被迫补仓,高的空头净额会导致爆炸性反弹。
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