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针对美国特朗普所宣布的保护政策在中期内能够如何影响时局,我们仍然拭目以待。在短期内,您可以看到从中国的进口并没有显著减少:
(来源: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
我们在这里想要指出美国从中国的进口在2015年相等于483,188.7、2016 等于 462,618.1。我们认为保护政策将不会如预期那样对中国造成巨大的影响。因此,驱动汇率变化的主要因素仍然将是经济和货币政策。中国的经济发展速度很有可能将继续走在美国前端。除此以外,人民币的外汇销售将继续增加。我们也预计在不久的将来人民币将能够自由浮动,逐渐摆脱受中国央行的操控。长话短说,人民币的重要性将提高,这样直接牵动其币值变化。这将导致美元兑人民币在未来十年里削弱。
未来的“常态”很有可能如下:
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